From my good friend Grant over in Spain,
enjoy,
peace,
d
____
Dan, I just read the update to your blog, but the part that interested
me most was the most recent posting about the need for energy in our
society and what it "does" for (to) us. Awesome writing man!!!
Mainly, I don't feel that energy abundance is such a bad thing, just
that the obtainment of energy should be done in the most efficient, yet
environmentally sound way. What energy (read, technology) has done for
us as a society principally is to allow us to store larger and larger
amounts of extrasomatic information. That is, information stored
outside of the human mind. As we developed over the course of human
history, we learned how to preserve information (things we learned) in
such a way that it could be passed on to future generations and hence,
such as to not reset the clock, so to speak, on learning. That is, a
latter generation wouldn't need to know the specifics of how to
construct, for instance, a house. Thus, things wouldn't need to be
re-learned over and over, information and, thus, knowledge could be
cumulative. In the early days, extrasomatic information was in the form
of, cave writings, stone tablets, paper, libraries, etc...
Now, we have, through use of the abundance of cheap energy available
since the start of the industrial revolution, been able to store
increasingly larger amounts of information. Think of the hard drive,
the cd/dvd, the mainframe computer, digital libraries of information.
Just as recent as the 80's we were talking about kilobytes (1000's of
bytes), then it was the megabyte (millions of bytes), now, commonly, the
gigabyte (billions of bytes) and presently, the terabyte (trillions of
bytes) is upon us. Here at work we store and move around terabytes of
data everyday. Soon, it will be the petabyte, the exabyte
(interestingly, my spellchecker detected as "mistakes" 'petabyte' and
'exabyte', but not the others, evidence that the word has not yet
become part of standard English lexicon) and so on...
How much is a terabyte, really? Ostensibly, the US Library of Congress
(the World's largest physical library) contains "only" 20 terabytes of
plain text. How many books is that? Millions, I am sure!
So, what's my point? My point is, without the abundance of energy that
we had during the cheap oil fiesta of the industrial revolution, we will
NOT be able to sustain the storage of this information. No matter how
many windmills, solar panels or nuclear power plants are built, there
will not be the same easy access to energy as we have presently. So,
what's going to happen? Well, the information will slowly (or perhaps,
not so slowly) be lost. I consider what is the average lifespan of the
typical hard drive or cd/dvd. Not long. On the order of decades,
maybe. Certainly not as long as those cave paintings.
This storage of information is how we order our civilization. It is how
we have managed to manipulate so much data to maintain our ever more
complex society. As we begin to lose the high energy input (fossil
fuels) the second law of thermodynamics will raise its weary head and
things will begin to deteriorate, our buildings, our cars and our hard
drives. Just as an apple will invariably rot and become compost or the
mountains will inevitably erode to the seas, this project we call
'civilization', whatever that means, will return full circle to where it
began, the earth, the soil. This will take many millions of years.
But, in the short term, the human concept of time, the problem will be
more visceral. We won't have the energy to run things the way they
were. That means, the economy, the cars and the computers may be toast.
In recent years, we have been able to make abundant use of stored solar
energy by burning the organisms (fossils) as fuel. But, it took
millions of years and tremendous pressures for them to be converted into
flammable hydrocarbons such as oil and gas. We humans have used most of
this now and, so on a human time scale this is effectively a
non-renewable resource. Ironically, it will be OUR fossils that will
become the fossil fuels millions of year hence for whomever is around to
burn them. I predict they'll make the same mistakes with usage as we
did. It´s so damn tempting!
After all, it is irresistible to not use energy if it is there. It lets
us do stuff. So, like you mentioned, this is why the industrialized
nations have been so eager to grab on to the remaining oil. They went
to Iraq to secure the oil at its source. They hope that the future
generations will forgive them (or at least forget) for lying about the
real reason to go to war. The final resource wars have begun. These
wars might play out over many decades and centuries, but what it all
boils down to is access to energy to keep the system running. And, so,
I sarcastically quote Dick Cheney who infamously said, "The American
lifestyle is not negotiable". That sentence explains more about
American foreign policy than anything. Unfortunately, the average
American Joe (or Canadian) is in the dark about the true cost of war. I
recently saw a bumper sticker on a gas guzzling SUV parked in a suburban
neighbourhood of Ottawa. It simply said, "NO WAR". I just chuckled
and thought to myself, "at least your heart is in the right place".
Though, when it all plays out, I predict that, although civilization may
corrode, culture will remain strong, because culture is really what
being a human is all about. ;)
- Grant G. Buffett